China set to benefit as South Africa looks to diversify away from US
As ties with Washington deteriorate, Pretoria is ‘determined to pursue economic diplomacy’ as it pursues new markets in Asia and Europe
It comes two months after a US trade initiative with Africa – the African Growth and Opportunity Act – expired, ending duty-free access for many South African exports.
In addition, a 30 per cent tariff imposed on South African exports by the US has meanwhile severely hurt farms, vehicle manufacturers and car parts makers, as well as mining companies.
South Africa is responding by pursuing new markets in Asia and Europe to diversify exports and attract investment.
The analysts said China was emerging as the main beneficiary as it stood to deepen economic and political ties with South Africa, while the US was at risk of ceding influence across the African continent.
Tim Zajontz, interim professor in International Relations at the University of Freiburg, said the South African government was seeking to further diversify its political and economic ties.
Pretoria aimed to redirect some of its exports – especially car parts, other manufactured goods and agricultural produce – to other destinations through a combination of subsidies, trade facilitation measures and economic diplomacy, according to Zajontz.
He said the efforts were being directed towards Europe, the Gulf states and various Asian and Latin American countries.
“The estrangement from the US will further intensify economic and political cooperation between South Africa and China,” Zajontz added.
To cultivate new economic allies in Asia, a South African delegation has visited China, Vietnam and Indonesia. President Cyril Ramaphosa also took part in the EU’s Global Gateway Forum in Brussels in October and recently visited Ireland and Switzerland in pursuit of investors and new markets.
Chrispin Phiri, spokesman for South Africa’s international relations minister, confirmed the nation was intensifying efforts to diversify its markets.
He acknowledged that the US was a substantial market for South Africa but said it was “determined to pursue economic diplomacy in earnest” in a bid to ramp up trade with other places.
He also pledged to deepen political mutual trust, firmly support South Africa’s core interests, and strengthen cooperation within platforms like Brics and the G20.
Zajontz, who is also a research fellow with the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at Stellenbosch University, said that in contrast with the US, China was opening its vast market to African goods and services.
“We are also going to see additional Chinese investments in South Africa’s automotive industry as well as in transport, energy and digital infrastructure,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Clean Trade and Investment Partnership signed between South Africa and Europe secures new market access and significant investment for South Africa’s green economy transition. The deal focuses on promoting battery manufacturing and facilitating South Africa’s export of electric vehicles to the EU market.
South Africa’s strained US relations are part of a broader pattern. Ties with Nigeria were similarly frayed after Trump threatened military action over what he claimed was the government’s failure to prevent widespread killings of Christians – allegations Abuja rejected.
According to John Calabrese, a non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, Washington’s absence from the G20 allowed Beijing to project itself as a reliable partner, strengthen economic ties and reinforce its narrative as Africa’s “go-to ally”.
He said the move reinforced incentives for African nations to lean into Brics and Chinese investment and signalled that US support was neither automatic nor guaranteed.
Calabrese said the move was shortsighted and risked the erosion of American influence while reinforcing China’s foothold in Africa.
China has gained influence by providing needed infrastructure across the continent, according to Professor John Kirton, director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto.
“[For supply chains] you really need ports and railroads – and Africa needs a lot more of that still,” he added.